The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, also increased slightly in January. The six-month change in the index stands at 0.8 percent (a 1.6 percent annual rate) in the period through January 2011, down from 1.4 percent (a 2.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. The lagging economic index fell slightly this month, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio rose, as a result. Meanwhile, real GDP grew at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, up from 2.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. remains on a rising trend with widespread strength among its components. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continues to be on a generally increasing path. All in all, the current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity should expand moderately in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS.
Six of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in January. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were the interest rate spread, the index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), stock prices, the index of consumer expectations, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 112.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in December and increased 1.1 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the leading economic index increased 3.0 percent, with seven out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 70 percent). The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, and real money supply.
COINCIDENT INDICATORS.
Three of the four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. increased in January. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were personal income less transfer payments, employment, and manufacturing and trade sales. The negative contributor was industrial production.
The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 102.1 (2004=100). This index increased 0.3 percent in December and increased 0.2 percent in November. During the six-month period through January, the coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
LAGGING INDICATORS.
The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 107.9 (2004=100) in January, with two of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index were the change in index of labor cost per unit of output in manufacturing and change in CPI for services. The
negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were average duration of unemployment (inverted), commercial and industrial loans outstanding, and the ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales, and average prime rate charged by banks held steady in January. Based on revised data, the lagging economic index increased 0.2 percent in December and decreased 0.3 percent in November.
