While many think a recession is inevitable, or may have already started, some still think growth will be weak but no recession will develop. The difference between the two views isn't very great. The economy may grow at about a 1 percent annual rate, possibly even 1.5 percent.

On the other hand, the pessimistic view is that GDP might contract at a 1 percent rate. Continued problems in construction, manufacturing, and in the financial markets (especially the credit market) offset some sound economic fundamentals. And the weak domestic economy isn't doing much for a slowing global economy. While there are some important data coming out this week, most eyes are beginning to focus on the next labor report — which could show that employment declined again.

The domestic economy is weaker than the rest of the world due to continued problems related to housing. But financial market turmoil is taking its toll across the globe. While some think there could be a stock market rally over the next few weeks, few believe volatility will tamp down — not with spreads in credit markets so large and fears of insolvency not fully receding.

Meanwhile, higher oil prices affect everyone, with a record price for a gallon of gasoline. Higher food and metal prices are also taking their toll. The consequence is that already marked down economic forecasts are getting another haircut this spring. Some day, the news will be brighter. But that is going to take some time to develop.